Harvested vs. forecasted : The 2006 yield figures
05/29/2007: Track records of the 2006 yield forecasts show high accuracy of IntelCrop prognoses
Some examples are given which show the high accuracy of the IntelCrop yield forecasting model throughout the growing season 2006 on country, county and growing area level.
The weekly values estimated by IntelCrop and represented by the blue bars are compared to the final official statistical figures which are represented by the red line.
The track record is available as a PDF file and can be downloaded.
Have a look at our track records 2006
(42KB)
03/07/2007: Accurate yield prognoses in 2006 also for the French regions
Not only on the national level, but also on a regional level IntelCrop was able to provide very accurate yield prognoses, like for the western Poitou-Charentes region and its department Vienne (compare map).
During the whole campaign, our model calculated both yield estimations correctly, showing only a 3 % deviation against the final figures. Besides the yield prognoses for winter wheat in Vienne, IntelCrop also provided prognoses for spring barley in Charente-Maritime. Both departments Charente and Deux-Sèvres also belong to Poitou-Charentes.
In the West, this region borders on the Atlantic Ocean which brings a maritime climate. Poitou-Charentes is highly agricultural. The cultivation of winter wheat represented 400.000 ha in 2006. However, the most famous speciality of this-region is likely to remain… the Cognac!
Like many other French regions, Poitou-Charentes had to cope with a severe dry and hot period from mid June 2006 on. In Vienne, this dry period occurred right in the delicate stage of grain filling which reached, with 17.8 °C, the highest daily mean temperature since 1999. Consequently, winter wheat yield was only 61 dt/ha down by 5 dt/ha from 2005. In peak years however, yield reaches up to 74 dt/ha.
This year, an unusual mild winter resulted in an earlier-than-average winter wheat development.
12/19/2006: IntelCrop beats the best in yield prognoses 2006
Extremely varying weather conditions and their influences on grain production in Northern and Central Europe could not bother the prognoses calculated by IntelCrop. Experts now confirm IntelCrop to have provided the most precise prognoses compared to other experts in the market.
For example, the prognosis values for spring barley in Germany always deviated less than 5% from the official statistical value during the entire growth period. This high accuracy was already reached at the very beginning of the growing season. We reported on that on 6th of November.
A detailed view is given by the figure beside which shows the prognoses of spring barley yield in Germany (blue bars) during 2006 in comparison to the official statistical value (red line) which was published after harvest.
Based on the first satellite images which characterised the crop status to be under average, the IntelCrop model forecasted slightly restrained prognosis values. Among other reasons, the impact of the delayed sowing in some parts of Germany due to the long winter period was quite evident for this. The improving growth conditions were then converted by the model into increasing yield predictions which approached the bench mark of 49 dt/ha in the calendar week 24. The long-term average value reaches 48 dt spring barley per ha in Germany. From week 25 (middle of June) onward the IntelCrop prognosis model responded to the upcoming heat wave and the crop damages which showed up on the satellite images in declining the prognosis values. These were at last only 0.6 % (0.3 dt/ha) higher than the official yield figure.
In Europe the extreme weather conditions continued until the end of the 2006 season.
While the new sown winter crops go to rest, IntelCrop is preparing for the new cropping season 2006/2007. Yield prognoses for Maize will be additionally offered then for the first time.
11/6/2006: Very accurate yield prognoses on country level in 2005/2006
During the campaign 2005/2006 IntelCrop provided yield prognoses for barley and wheat on the country and county level for the first time. First preliminary official yield figures for European countries and Canada confirm that IntelCrop’s prognoses for this application base on a very accurate scientific model too.
As a matter of fact, the deviation of IntelCrop’s estimations for spring barley on the country level remains far below the 5 % limit, for example in such important production countries as France, Great Britain and Germany. In Canada also, the prognoses provided for the observed growing regions Alberta and Saskatchewan are very precise. Front-runner regarding the forecasting accuracy is however the prognosis for Germany which always remained far under 5 % deviation, from the beginning of the campaign in April, reaching 0,6 % a few weeks ahead of harvest (46,8 dt/ha official – 47,1 IntelCrop).
For winter wheat, IntelCrop most exactly forecasted crop yield for the German federal state Bavaria, with a deviation of only 0,2 % from the current official final figure 4 weeks ahead of harvest (68.4 dt/ha official – 68.6 dt/ha IntelCrop). Weekly estimations over the entire campaign never exceeded 3 % deviation. This extremely good result for winter wheat could be reached for Germany as well, and this from the start of the growing period onwards.
For France too, the deviation of IntelCrop’s estimations from the official preliminary figure always remained far below 5 %. The Lorraine region leads thereby the list of the best estimated growing areas (68 dt/ha official – 67.3 dt/ha IntelCrop).
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